A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
