Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
